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Wow, last week was a good one.  The picks went 12-2, putting me in the 99th percentile on ESPN.  This week seems similarly easy to pick.

Additionally, there are some big rotoDraftKit announcements coming in the next few weeks.  Watch for them.

Baltimore over St. Louis

Washington over Green Bay

Tennessee over Tampa Bay

Kansas City over Cincinnati

Philadelphia over Jets

Jacksonville over Houston

Chicago over Minnesota

Cleveland over Miami

Arizona over Carolina

San Diego over Oakland

New England over Dallas

Seattle over New Orleans

Giants over Atlanta

Last week I finished 7-7.  That record is certainly not impressive, but it did beat the national average by a full game.  It was a very tough week with all of the injuries and upsets.  This week will be much easier.

 Houston over Miami

Kansas City over Jacksonville

Giants over Jets

New Orleans over Carolina

New England over Cleveland

Washington over Detroit

Tennessee over Atlanta

Arizona over St. Louis

Pittsburgh over Seattle

Indianapolis over Tampa Bay

Baltimore over San Francisco

San Diego over Denver

Chicago over Green Bay

Dallas over Buffalo

A solid Week 3, going 11-5.  This week is especially tough, however, as several teams suffered key injuries last week.  Hopefully, this week isn't ugly.

Houston over Atlanta

Buffalo over Jets

Baltimore over Cleveland

Dallas over St. Louis

Chicago over Detroit

Miami over Oakland

Minnesota over Green Bay

Tampa Bay over Carolina

Seattle over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Arizona

Indianapolis over Denver

Kansas City over San Diego

Philadelphia over Giants

New England over Cincinnati

So last week didn't go so great at 9-7.  At least I wasn't in the minority.  This week is very likely to go better.

Baltimore over Arizona

San Diego over Green Bay

Indianapolis over Houston

Kansas City over Minnesota

New England over Buffalo

NY Jets over Miami

Philadelphia over Detroit

Pittsburgh over San Francisco

Tampa Bay over St. Louis

Denver over Jacksonville

Cleveland over Oakland

Cincinnati over Seattle

Carolina over Atlanta

Washington over NY Giants

Dallas over Chicago

Tennessee over New Orleans 

Big second halves can be nice indicators for the following season, especially for young players.  In young players, it shows that they have made adjustments to the competition.  Without further ado, here are some big second half players who could be in for big 2008 seasons:

Alex Gordon, 3B, KC: This former second overall draft choice is showing his ability in the second half.  After a slow start, he is hitting .291-9-31 after the break.  His 11/55 BB/K ratio leaves something to be desired, but that is to be expected from a rookie.  The Royals are starting to get what they hoped for from the youngster, as he is starting to catch up with fellow 2005 third base draftees Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun.  His average has really taken off since his review two weeks ago.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA: One of the most frustrating young players in the game missed the beginning of the year due to injury, but he has joined teammates Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez to make one of the most impressive young trifectas in the game for the Marlins.  Since the break he has shown his minor league ability, hitting .335-9-28.  Hermida is somewhat risky going into next season after two injury-riddled seasons, but he will likely also be undervalued since his second half has come under the radar.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD: The Morgan Ensberg acquisition seemed to really start a fire under this rookie.  He is hitting well above .300 since the All-Star Break with six home runs.  Since the break, Kouzmanoff is hitting .314-10-29.  He showed all the ability in the world in the minors, and it is finally coming to fruition at the next level.  Keep in mind that Kouzmanoff was an injury risk in the minors, but he could still be a nice buy on draft day next season.

Nate McLouth, OF, PIT: This is a long-time favorite of mine who may be winning himself a starting spot in 2008 with his strong second half.  McLouth is more of a leadoff-type, but he has 11 home runs after the break.  With 13 steals and a .351 OBP after the break, he is really showing great ability for the Pirates and fantasy owners.  A new front office regime could look to spend some money this offseason, and clearly the best place to spend it this offseason is in the outfield.  Still, it would be a shame of McLouth fails to get an opportunity next season. 

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL: 2007 has been the year of the shortstop, with Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins putting in first-round fantasy pick performances.  Tulowitzki may also have that potential after what he has shown during his rookie season. While his first half was not too shabby, Tulowitzki really pressed on the gas after the break by hitting .305-12-48.  He compares favorably to Michael Young at his best because of all the plate appearances he sees near the top of the Colorado lineup.  A .300-30-100, 100 run 2008 season seems well within reach.

Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD: Tell me again why this guy was not good enough to start the season in the rotation.  In 14 starts since the break, Billingsley is 6-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 85.1 innings.  He was a clear case coming up through the minors, and he is becoming the best pitcher on a team known for its pitching.  Young pitchers are always injury risks, but Billingsley has a clean past bill of health.  Pick him next season.  Then watch and drool.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland: Talk about a great first season as a starter.  Carmona was terrific in the first half, and he has been even better after the break by going 7-4 with a 2.19 ERA.  Carmona has a solid K/BB ratio for an extreme groundball pitcher, and that statement explains all you need to know about his success.  In fact, he compares well in that respect to the two most extreme groundball pitchers in the game - Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe.  He is as safe a pitcher as there is for fantasy owners going into 2008.

Dustin McGowan, SP, Toronto: Think about how long we waited for this guy to breakout.  McGowan's career is mirroring that of Roy Halladay, as he had a great minor league career but took longer to show something in the majors than expected.  During the second half he is 6-5 with a 3.18 and a 76/25 K/BB ratio in 87.2 innings.  The Blue Jays are a huge sleeper in the AL East next season, especially considering that B.J. Ryan will be returning and Vernon Wells can't possibly play any worse than he did this season.  With Shaun Marcum also breaking out this season, the Jays have four formidable starting pitchers.

Adam Wainwright, SP, STL: Wainwright has been one of the National League's top pitchers during the second half, going 6-4 with a 2.49 ERA in 12 starts.  His velocity was down and his curveball was flat in the first half, as Wainwright was adjusting to starting in the majors.  Still, there is reason to tread carefully here going into next season.  Wainwright's three home runs allowed in the second half seems like an outlier considering that he is not a groundball pitcher, and he has a history of wearing down in the minors.  I still think Wainwright will be hard-pressed to post an ERA much under 4.00 next season.

Week 1 saw me go 12-4, which is above the 90th percentile according to ESPN's Pick'em Game.  Of course, I was eliminated from all Survivor tournaments by picking the Jaguars in Week 1, but we don't talk about that.

Here are the Week 2 picks:

Carolina over Houston

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Jacksonville over Atlanta

Green Bay over Giants

Pittsburgh over Buffalo

San Francisco over St. Louis

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

Indianapolis over Tennessee

Seattle over Arizona

Minnesota over Detroit

Dallas over Miami

Baltimore over Jets

Kansas City over Chicago

Denver over Oakland

New England over San Diego

9/17 Edit: I forgot to pick the Monday Night game.  Philadelphia over Washington. 

The following are my picks for Week 1 games.  This will become a regular weekly exercise, so feel free to play along.  The winner is in bold, and this is straight winner/loser picks (not based on the spread).

Colts over Saints

Chiefs over Texans 

Broncos over Bills

Steelers over Browns

Jaguars over Titans

Panthers over Rams

Eagles over Packers

Vikings over Falcons

Redskins over Dolphins

Patriots over Jets

Seahawks over Bucs

Chargers over Bears

Lions over Raiders

Cowboys over Giants

Ravens over Bengals

49ers over Cardinals

Good luck!

The release of Byron Leftwich was surprising, but not only because he is a former first-round draft choice who went into Training Camp as the starter.  The move was surprising because of new Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was brought in to make the Jags more of a passing offense.

Koetter, the former head coach at Arizona State, produced some very exciting offenses over the last few years at the college level.  Of course, he also had some very impressive quarterbacks, most notably new Nebraska starter Sam Keller, who transferred from ASU after losing his starting job last season. 

For all the talent Jags starter David Garrard has, he is anything but a passing quarterback.  He has a mediocre career passer rating of 78.3, accumulated primarily over the last two seasons.  And while his 18/13 TD/INT ratio over his career is not terrible, he struggled to keep the ball away from opposing defenses last season with nine interceptions in an eight-game timespan.  Garrard does reiterate the Jaguars' old ways of running the ball, though, with 250 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in 11 games last season. 

The fact is that Garrard was clearly the better quarterback during the preseason with a passer rating more than 35 points better than Leftwich (113.4 to 77.3), and the quarterbacks were given equal opportunity to compete. 

Still, the Jags were only 4-5 with Garrard starting last season.  Whether that record is Garrard's fault remains to be seen, but the Jags are taking a risk by letting Leftwich walk if Garrard doesn't work out.  On the other hand, Garrard harnessed the new offense in the exhibition season.  It remains to be seen what the offense will do for the team as a whole, but it certainly gives Garrard more upside as a fantasy quarterback since he will get more chances to throw.  Thus, Garrard becoming a top 10 fantasy quarterback this season should not shock anyone.

Let's hope the move works out for the Jaguars, if for no other reason than the fact that they were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl.